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Let the marathon begin

Let the federal election race begin! Most in the media industry love elections, not just because they provide a plethora of material to fill newspapers, but because it’s in a journalist’s very nature to be interested in politics, especially at the fe

Let the federal election race begin!

Most in the media industry love elections, not just because they provide a plethora of material to fill newspapers, but because it’s in a journalist’s very nature to be interested in politics, especially at the federal level.

There has been a lot written about the Oct. 19 federal election, both because with an fixed election date, we all knew it was coming eventually, and also because, with political advertisements ongoing for the last few months, it seems like the election started ages ago.

One issue that has been talked about relentlessly since the ‘writ dropped’ Aug. 2 is why Prime Minister Stephen Harper decided to call the election early, essentially making it a 78-day election from a 37-day affair. The answer is obvious, whether people like it or not – a longer election helps the Conservative Party in more ways than one: they have raised way more money than their competitors (around $76 million so far, compared to $46 million for the Liberals and $33 million for the NDP), meaning they can spend on ads for a longer, more sustained period of time; and, now that the election has officially began, third-party interest groups, like unions and such, are limited as to how much they can spend on attack ads on the Conservatives, which goes without saying, will happen.

So, NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and Green Party leader Elizabeth May, along with anti-Harperites, can complain all they want, but if in a similar position, they would all do the same thing. It is, however, their job to criticize the move…this is an election after all.

Another ‘observation’ that has been written about in the media lately has been the assertion that this election will be about Harper and his record as prime minister.

Gee, how insightful. Of course the election will be about Harper and his record – he’s the only party leader with a record to speak of, and he’s been accumulating that record for the past near decade.

Governing parties certainly have their advantages when it comes to elections; they usually are able to raise more money from donors, they have greater knowledge of the issues, and they can dictate election details (call an election, pass laws on the election, etc.), but they also have a major disadvantage, and that is the fact that a governing party has an actual record that people can point to. The Liberals and NDP have no such record, and can simply tell the Canadian people what they would do if they were elected…and we all know (hopefully by now we all know) that what a politician says and what they do are often two very different things.

Depending on what poll you look at, the race looks tight at present.

The Election Almanac has the Conservatives at 31.5 per cent, NDP 30.1 per cent and Liberals at 29.3 per cent. They also project 156 seats to go Conservative, 122 NDP and 58 to the Liberals.

ThreeHundredEight.com is projecting things a little closer: 132 Conservative, 122 NDP and 81 Liberal.

Early predictions seem to bring into question whether the Liberals will regain some of their 2011 losses, or if those seats will go Conservative.

Harper’s approval rating is currently between 31 and 37 per cent, again depending on the poll, which is fairly normal in a majority three-party system leading up to an election.

For comparison, in the U.S.’s two-party system, President Obama has a 46 per cent approval rating at this time.

The Canadian election will not be won or lost in Cochrane or in Alberta…sorry folks. This election will be won in Ontario (primarily in the Toronto area), as it always is.

Contrary to popular belief, Canadian immigrants have leaned Conservative since Harper took the helm.

Toronto suburbs with high immigrant populations mostly went blue in 2011 – six Mississauga riding all went Conservative; four of five Brampton ridings; two of three Etobicoke and York ridings; and both Barrie ridings, as well.

The GTA will be interesting, as will several other riding in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec. The Conservatives usually take a beating in Quebec, mainly because they have not pandered to all Quebecers’ wants and desires like the NDP has done so well of late.

The Eagle does not endorse any candidate, municipally, provincially or federally, because frankly, our editorial office is made up of individuals, individuals who often have differing opinions – it’s a wonderful thing.

We do, however, enjoy making predictions, some of which have been really close, others not so much.

Given the fact that we do not have a Parliamentary correspondent in the Ottawa bureau, we can merely go on the mood we see and hear in our community, history and what is happening in the great big media world, social and otherwise.

The Conservatives will win the 2015 election, but will be downgraded to a minority government.

The name Trudeau will automatically win the Liberals some seats back that they lost under Michael Ignatieff, who couldn’t even win his own seat.

With the NDP so heavily entrenched in Quebec, and popular in areas where unions remain a force, they will continue to do well.

Then again, there could be a surprise. Just look at what happened in Alberta.

Federal politics is different than provincial, however. And to be fair, Canada is doing fairly well in the grand scheme of things. We are the most reputable country in the world (reputationinstitute.com/research/Country-RepTrak).




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