As per the changes brought to fruition last July to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), April 1 marked the deadline for permit expiration for those low-wage earners who have been in Canada working through the program for more than four years.
Janet Lane is the director for the human capital policy centre for the Canada West Foundation — a non-partisan think tank that seeks to strengthen Western values through research and commentary, to inform government policy and decision-making.
The foundation took interest with the TFWP around a year ago, recognizing the strong impact this program has on Western economies.
Lane said while firm numbers are not currently available, it is estimated between 8,000-15,000 temporary foreign workers will be required to leave Alberta as a result of last week’s deadline; at least 60,000 from across the country will be required to leave.
By July 1, a maximum of 20 per cent of staff employed by Canadian companies can be temporary foreign workers; by next summer this drops to 10 per cent.
The maximum is currently at 30 per cent; prior to July 2014 there was no cap.
Nancy Etcheverry is the owner/operator of all three Cochrane Tim Hortons locations. She has a staff of over 100 on her roster; around 25 per cent are currently part of the TFWP.
Etcheverry said while the April 1 deadline won’t directly impact her staff members, the ongoing changes and cap restrictions do pose staffing concerns.
While she is always hiring, the TFWP has helped fill staffing gaps in a growing economy, as students are not often available for graveyard or daytime shifts and fast food is a ‘challenging environment’ for seniors.
“The TFWP is something that will affect the West greatly,” said Lane, adding that rural communities with lower employable populations will likely be hit the hardest.
“There are thousands leaving…for some people who have been here for four years or more, this is home.”
Lane said people might need to face some adjustments, such as not having the convenience of a 4 a.m. coffee, as fast food restaurants would likely have to adjust what shifts they are open for.
Outside of fast food, gaps will likely open up in construction, meat packing plants and a shortage of truck drivers is also in the forecast; Lane said it’s questionable that many of these workers are labeled as ‘low wage’ or ‘low skilled’ (the cut off for ‘low wage’ in Alberta is moving up from $24.23 to $25/hour by the end of the month).
Tourism areas and service sectors will likely be the most affected, as the TFWP has helped to ‘allow the economy to expand the way it has’.
Other contributing factors to the employment gap in the service sector include placing priority on youth to focus on university and a shift in the youth demographic.
The highest concentration of persons in the TFWP (in order) are from the Philippines, the U.S., Mexico, India, France, Australia, the U.K., China, South Korea and Japan.
