It’s a tough sell in Cochrane right now, leaving motivated sellers vulnerable to the whims of the market and buyers with no shortage of product to choose from. Eleanor Kidder of Kidder and Co. Real Estate and Property Management, has been a Cochrane resident for 34 years and a realtor and property manager in town for the last 20. Never has Kidder seen such an abundance of product available, although she is yet to see significant price reductions reflective of a saturated market. “Just as there are no buyers out there, there are no renters ... the housing bubble is a side effect of our economy,” explained Kidder. “Prices are going to have to come down ... and your (house) is going to have to be the shiniest, cleanest and prettiest,” she added, explaining that responsible realtors afford real-talk with clients, which often means not quoting the highest list price as a starting point. Kidder also emphasized that the 398 listings she counted on MLS the morning of Aug. 22 do not account for new builds or what is available on the market by builders and developers – who have the ability to offer incentives not found in the re-sale market. She also said that realtors are seeing the impacts of the controversial new mortgage rules that came into effect Jan. 1 of this year, making it more difficult for homeowners to qualify with the requirement to pass a “stress test” to ensure their mortgage payments match affordability if mortgage rates fluctuate. Andy Potton, a realtor with Royal LePage Allstar, agrees. “I think there’s a lot of overpricing happening. It seems that people place a higher value on (their homes) because they love it so much ... the realty is, find a realtor who understands the market history,” explained Potton, adding that local realtors understand the unique “peaks and troughs” of the Cochrane market and good ones will look at the market history over the last several years. Potton added that the new developments in Cochrane also impact the re-sale market, with a surplus of inventory available and builders/developers often pricing subsequent phases lower than what their earlier phases purchased for. Kendra Watt with CIR Realty said people should be mindful that when reducing a sale price on one end, there are a lot of deals to be had on the purchasing end. “Price is everything ... if you’re staying in the same market and moving to another neighbourhood, it’s all relative,” she said, agreeing with other area realtors that the typical “spring rush” never saw an influx of buyers, compared to the listings that came online. Spikes and dips for the sale of detached homes in Cochrane have ranged from plus or minus four to nine per cent year over year, according to stats provided by Potton, with the highest peaks in 2006 (+38.89 per cent), 2007 (+24 per cent) and more recently, 2010 (+5.19 per cent), 2013 (+4.82 per cent) and 2014 (+8.03 per cent). In 2015 there was no variance from the previous year and in 2016, sales fell by 4.21 per cent and rose 0.71 per cent last year. The town’s population has also more than doubled since 2002 when the population census revealed 12,074 residents compared to the 2018 census data of 27,960. As of Aug. 22, according to stats provided by Kidder, the abundant product listed through MLS reveals 115 attached homes listed (townhomes/duplexes); 20 sold in the last 30 days and another three pending. This leaves enough inventory for the next 5.75 months if no further attached homes were to be listed. The data also revealed 237 detached homes listed, with 27 sold in the last 30 days and another five pending sales. This leaves nine months of inventory supply. As for apartments, 46 were listed, with one sold in the last 30 days and another pending. There is currently 46 months of inventory supply on the market in this category. Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with CREB (the Calgary Real Estate Board), said that its June 2018 data revealed that there were 386 units of inventory in Cochrane, which is a rise over the previous year. She did caution that historical numbers in smaller communities pose a challenge, given Cochrane’s significant population increase over the last several years. “Slower sales this year combined with rising inventories has cause the months of supply to increase over last year, but is has not pushed above record highs,” said Lurie. “Levels are currently higher than the normal and this could place some downward price pressure on the resale market over the next several months.” Lurie explained that CREB is less concerned with the amount of product on the market than with sales numbers. “The longer the market stays oversupplied the more of an impact it has on prices. While the Cochrane market is exhibiting some signs of oversupply, it is not yet to the extent that would generate concern regarding significant price adjustments.”
